Why Now Is the Smartest Time to Buy a Home in Toronto (and Beyond)
As of Spring 2025, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market is showing clear signs of favouring buyers — a sharp contrast from the overheated conditions seen during the pandemic years. Whether you’re looking in Toronto, Markham, or Richmond Hill, the numbers all point in the same direction: this is a rare window for buyers to act with confidence.
📈 What is the Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) — and Why Does It Matter?
The Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) is a key metric that tells us how competitive the housing market is. It’s calculated as: SNLR=(Sales/New Listings)×100
🧭 Interpreting the SNLR:
- Below 40% → Buyer’s Market
- 40–60% → Balanced Market
- Above 60% → Seller’s Market
A lower SNLR means more homes are being listed than sold, giving buyers more choices, less urgency, and stronger negotiating power.
📊 What the Latest SNLR Tells Us (April 2025)
According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB):
🏙️ Toronto
- Sales: 2,129
- New Listings: 6,671
- SNLR(Trend): 32.0%
- 📉 Clearly a buyer’s market. Inventory is up, and sellers are facing longer days on market.
🏡 Markham
- Sales: 238
- New Listings: 779
- SNLR(Trend): 38.0%
- 🧭 Just below balanced territory — buyers still have the edge.
🌳 Richmond Hill
- Sales: 159
- New Listings: 632
- SNLR(Trend): 32.1%
- 📊 The market is soft, with rising inventory and reduced pressure on buyers.
*SNLR(Trend) is seasonally adjusted and smooths out fluctuations due to recurring seasonal patterns (like spring surges). This version is typically produced by TRREB using statistical smoothing to better reflect underlying market momentum.
🗂 Checkout my Blog post: TRREB April 2025 Market Update
📉 Mortgage Rates in Context: Historically Still Reasonable
While today’s rates are higher than the rock-bottom lows of 2020, they remain moderate by long-term standards.
| Year | Mortgage Rate (5-year fixed average) |
|---|---|
| 1981 | 21%+ 🔥 |
| 2000–2009 | 5–7% |
| 2020 | 1.4–2.0% (pandemic low) |
| 2025 | ~5.0% (Prime Rate) |
| BoC Overnight Rate: | 2.75% (Mar 2025) |
📌 Source: WOWA.ca – Mortgage Rate History
While not ultra-low, today’s rates are far from unaffordable — and with the Bank of Canada signaling possible rate cuts ahead, buyers who purchase now may refinance into lower rates later.
💬 Consumer Confidence: A Turn Toward Optimism
One often-overlooked market signal is consumer confidence — a barometer of how Canadians feel about their financial outlook and the economy. When people feel confident, they buy. When they hesitate, markets stay soft.
As of May 23, 2025, the Bloomberg-Nanos Canadian Confidence Index (BNCCI) hit 52.09, its highest level this year and notably above the neutral 50 mark, indicating a positive shift in public sentiment.
🔍 What’s Behind the Confidence Rebound?
- 📈 Real estate expectations surged by over 12 points in just four weeks.
- 🌎 Confidence in the broader Canadian economy rose nearly 10 points.
- 💼 Pocketbook Index — which tracks personal finances and job security — climbed to 55.02.
“Biggest confidence gains relate to the increasing value of real estate and the future strength of the Canadian economy.” — Nanos Research, May 23, 2025
📌 Source: Nanos Research Confidence Index
🧠 What This Means for You
As confidence rises, more buyers will start re-entering the market. Acting before that wave gives today’s buyers:
- Less competition
- Better pricing
- Greater leverage in negotiations
In short: buyer optimism is returning — but those who act early stand to benefit most.
🔑 What Buyers Can Do Right Now
- ✅ Watch for listings with 21+ days on market — these are often more negotiable
- ✅ Get pre-approved — it strengthens your offer and locks in a rate
- ✅ Consider long-term value — especially in top-tier communities like Markham & Richmond Hill
🧾 Final Thoughts
The numbers don’t lie. For serious buyers, the current market presents:
- Less competition
- More choices
- Stable prices
- Historically reasonable borrowing costs
If you’re planning to live in your next home for the medium-to-long term, 2025 may go down as one of the best buying opportunities of the decade — especially in top-tier areas like Toronto, Markham, and Richmond Hill.
Ready When You Are
Whether you’re buying your first home, upsizing, downsizing, or just exploring your options, I’m here to help you make confident, informed decisions — without pressure.
📩 Let’s connect to chat about your plans, explore smart strategies, and make your next move a clear one.
🖋️ Email: opel@opelou.com
Real estate made clear, one smart move at a time.
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